With the Grammy noms set to drop tomorrow (11/8), we put together the lists of names that we—were we in the mysterious chamber(s) where such decisions are made—would start with. It’s unclear just how many entries will make it into each category (it could be as many as 10), but this year is brimming with worthy possibilities. Bearing in mind the eternal caveat that Grammys Gonna Grammy™, here are a few we consider locks and a few longshots.

And when we say "a few we consider locks," what we're trying to communicate, in our jocular fashion, is that if those artists, records and songs don't make the shortlists, somebody fucked up big time. This has been an incredible year for music—let's get this right, Academy peeps.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

In this category we were unanimous on the locks: five distinct artist visions with songs for miles.

Beyoncé, COWBOY CARTER
Sabrina Carpenter, Short n’ Sweet
Chappell Roan, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
Billie Eilish, HIT ME HARD AND SOFT
Taylor Swift, THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT

Lenny’s longshots: Charli xcx, BRAT; the Twister soundtrack (“The best blending of movie and music I’ve heard in quite some time.”)

Simon’s longshots: Charli xcx, BRAT; Post Malone, F-1 Trillion; Chris Stapleton, Higher; Eminem, The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grâce); Willow, Empathogen (“The latter is the sort of cool, left-field selection the Academy often drops among more obvious choices.”)

Craig’s longshot: USHER, Coming Home (“Recording Academy’s shifting demographics + huge Super Bowl look could add up to USHER’s second-ever AOTY nom.”)

RECORD OF THE YEAR

LENNY

Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Billie Eilish, "BIRDS OF A FEATHER"
Kendrick Lamar, "Not Like Us"
Shaboozey, "A Bar Song (Tipsy)"

LONGSHOT:
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile”

SIMON

Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile”
Beyoncé, "TEXAS HOLD 'EM"
Kendrick Lamar, "Not Like Us"

LONGSHOTS:
Shaboozey, "A Bar Song (Tipsy)"
SZA, "Saturn"
Ariana Grande, “we can’t be friends (wait for your love)”
Jack Harlow, "Lovin' on Me"
Tommy Richman, "MILLION DOLLAR BABY"

CRAIG

Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”
Billie Eilish, "BIRDS OF A FEATHER"
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile”
Beyoncé, "TEXAS HOLD 'EM"
Kendrick Lamar, "Not Like Us"

LONGSHOT:
Shaboozey, "A Bar Song (Tipsy)"

"If a dude is going to take home one of the big four awards," says Craig of Kendrick, "this is the most likely contender."

He adds, "It's hard to call the most chart-dominant song of 2024 a longshot, but Shaboozey may not be a top choice for either pop or country voters."

SONG OF THE YEAR

(writer credits below)

LENNY

"Please Please Please," Sabrina Carpenter
"Good Luck, Babe!," Chappell Roan
"BIRDS OF A FEATHER," Billie Eilish
"Die With a Smile," Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars
"A Bar Song (Tipsy)," Shaboozey

LONGSHOTS:

"Too Sweet," Hozier
"Beautiful Things," Benson Boone

SIMON

"BIRDS OF A FEATHER," Billie Eilish
"Please Please Please," Sabrina Carpenter
"Good Luck, Babe!," Chappell Roan
"Too Sweet," Hozier
"Fortnight," Taylor Swift f/Post Malone

LONGSHOTS:

"I Am Not Okay," Jelly Roll
"Ain't No Love in Oklahoma," Luke Combs
"I Love You, I'm Sorry," Gracie Abrams
"greedy," Tate McRae
"symptom of life," WILLOW

CRAIG

"Please Please Please," Sabrina Carpenter
"BIRDS OF A FEATHER," Billie Eilish
"Good Luck, Babe!," Chappell Roan
"Die With a Smile," Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars
"Fortnight," Taylor Swift f/Post Malone

LONGSHOT:

"Now and Then," The Beatles

"It's been an absolutely sensational year for songwriting," declares Lenny.

"'Now and Then' is The Beatles' 211th best song," notes Craig, "which, you know, is still pretty good."

BEST NEW ARTIST

CONSENSUS PICKS:

Sabrina Carpenter
Chappell Roan
Benson Boone
Shaboozey

Lenny's fifth: The Red Clay Strays
Simon and Craig's fifth: Teddy Swims

LONGSHOTS:

Lenny: Teddy Swims
Simon: The Red Clay Strays, Ivan Cornejo, The Marías
Craig: Mk.gee, Central Cee, Sexyy Red

It's most likely a Sabrina/Chappell duel this time.

In any case, Simon and Craig picked Teddy Swims as their fifth. "Teddy seems to have lost his early momentum, but there is more than enough room to nominate him unless the Academy goes off on wild tangents."

Lenny calls his fifth, The Red Clay Strays, "the best new rock band I've heard in over a decade."

As for Mk.gee, Craig muses that this "longhair guitar weirdo could win the votes of the Academy’s longhair engineers and studio rats."

SOTY Songwriter Credits

"Espresso," written by Sabrina Carpenter, Amy Allen, Julian Bunetta and Steph Jones (performed by Sabrina Carpenter)

“Good Luck, Babe!,” written by Daniel Nigro, Chappell Roan and Justin Tranter (performed by Chappell Roan)

“Die With a Smile,” written by Dernst “D’Mile” Emile II, James Fauntleroy, Lady Gaga, Bruno Mars and Andrew Watt (performed by Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars)

“BIRDS OF A FEATHER” written by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (performed by Billie Eilish)

“Fortnight,” written by Taylor Swift, Jack Antonoff and Post Malone (performed by Taylor Swift f/Post Malone)

“Please Please Please,” written by Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff and Sabrina Carpenter (performed by Sabrina Carpenter)

"Now and Then,” written by John Lennon, George Harrison, Paul McCartney and Ringo Starr (performed by The Beatles)

"Too Sweet," written by Andrew Hozier-Byrne, Tyler Mehlenbacher and Stuart Johnson (performed by Hozier)

"I Am Not Okay," written by Jason Bradley DeFord and Ashley Gorley (performed by Jelly Roll)

"A Bar Song (Tipsy)," written by Collins Chibueze, Nevin Sastry, Sean Cook, Jerrell Jones and Mark Williams (performed by Shaboozey)

"Beautiful Things," written by Benson Boone, Blair MacKichan and Evan Blair (performed by Benson Boone)

"Ain't No Love in Oklahoma," written by Luke Combs, Jessi Alexander and Jonathan Singleton (performed by Luke Combs)

"greedy," written by Tate McRae, Amy Allen, Jasper Harris and Ryan Tedder (performed by Tate McRae)

"I Love You, I'm Sorry," written by Gracie Abrams and Aaron Dessner (performed by Gracie Abrams)

"symptom of life," written by Willow, Asher Bank, Chris Greatti and Brad Oberhofer (performed by Willow)