NEAR TRUTHS: SANDSTORM

Considerable chatter surrounds the impending Coachella lineup, with news of Fred again.. as a headliner followed by loud rumors about Post Malone and Green Day from the agencies. Much hay was made in some press outlets over rumors that Rihanna had “passed” on Coachella 2025—which was rather odd, given that RiRi has probably had a standing invitation to headline for a decade; her “passing” on the festival could be described as an annual event.

That said, obtaining top festival talent has become more difficult over the last few years. One reason for this: the lack of development of major headliners during the streaming era, during which hit songs—not hit acts—have dominated the landscape. (The pandemic certainly didn’t help.) Thus festivals must often rely on stars from prior decades to fill out those two- and three-day events.

But the pendulum may be swinging back from top tracks to artist-development stories, if the last few years are any indication: We’ve seen Chappell (who wraps up her tour at ACL at press time as she begins to look for a new manager), Billie, SZA, O-Rod, Sabrina, Charli, Morgan, Noah, Zach and several other acts develop into major attractions, all seeming to confirm that the long view is coming back into vogue. But it always helps—particularly in terms of extending a fest’s demographic reach—to bring back a great act from another era, whether it’s Joni Mitchell or No Doubt.

Morgan Wallen’s two recent stadium shows in Knoxville, Tennessee, grossed $27m. The bottom line, with respect to the bottom line, is that there’s a ton of money out there, and Live Nation and AEG have been able to deliver huge sums to artists who can put asses in seats.

Another interesting issue dogging the acquisition of major talent is that the plethora of stadium tours compete, dollar-wise, with the leading festivals. The typical $7-10m figure for a top festival headliner is roughly equivalent to what that act can gross at a stadium show, depending on ticket prices and capacity. That’s before commissions and production costs, which usually eat about 40% of the gross; at festivals, a lot of the costs are built in already.

There’s nuance to these gross numbers as regards VIP and platinum ticketing. Taylor Swift, to cite a prominent example, is probably doing $15m per night in gross receipts, merch included. Ostensibly about 40%, in production and reduced commissions to managers and agents, comes off the top. It’s a complicated puzzle, and most top artists have experienced business managers and lawyers who’ve seen it all and can navigate this often-difficult terrain. Hypothetically, it’s possible to pay a 20% management commission, a 10% agent commission and a 5% business-manager commission, but with today’s sophisticated teams working the angles, it’s unlikely for a superstar to be paying 35-40% in commissions.

The upshot, reflecting an evolving power dynamic in the biz: Managers are getting 10-15% of net these days on big acts, and agents are also getting their commissions reduced on the truly big artists. The artists are, rightly, receiving the lion’s share of the money and becoming very wealthy from touring, branding and merch.

Word has it, meanwhile, that the order of names on the festival’s poster always occasions huge Sturm und Drang among the agents and other reps jockeying for position—and that the difference of a few millimeters in the lineup list can fuel knock-down-drag-outs among the teams.