NEAR TRUTHS: MIDYEAR MOMENTUM

THE HALFTIME WHISTLE: With 2024 half over, we find that a number of predictions about the music marketplace have been, happily, inaccurate. Streaming has remained robust—in defiance of expectations about a downturn—buoyed by a healthy menu of star releases and several truly impressive new-artist breakthroughs. Thanks to boosts in subscription fees, noise-reduction initiatives and other efforts, streaming’s profitability is up 8% year over year, though ATD only increased by 3% in the U.S. The live sector, supposedly softening after the post-pandemic rebound, is having a generally warm summer.

Meanwhile, the colossal mainstream success of country has altered the dynamic considerably for Nashville as the coastal majors move into Music City—in some cases quite literally as Republic sets up shop there, with Mary Catherine Kinney overseeing the outpost, and Warner installs A&R hitter Kelly Bolton as its local operative. Other coastal labels are said to be hatching plans to expand their footprints in Nashville. How does the town’s longtime business community view this incursion into a domain that had hitherto been its (nearly) exclusive purview?

The last time House Lipman made such a move was in partnership with Scott Borchetta’s Big Machine, then the home of Taylor. This time it’s with Seth England’s Big Loud, home of Morgan Wallen, giving Republic and Mercury a huge foothold in Nashville. Mercury’s Tyler Arnold and Ben Adelson have raised the temperature with Arnold-signed Post Malone’s effective country pivot (on the heels of Adelson-inked juggernaut Noah Kahan’s ongoing hot streak); the new Jelly Roll deal is likely to amp things up considerably. Speaking of the John Meneilly-managed Jelly, wonderers wonder if he will dial back his plentiful feature appearances in the less-is-more spirit; in any case, his forthcoming album should be studded with starry payback features.

What does the future hold for the town that for so long has owned the genre, and what sorts of changes, accommodations and new alliances might be in store as the streaming might of this and other earthy, guitar-based music abides?

RUDE HEALTH: A hot marketplace is always welcome, but it is noteworthy that in addition to the superstar sets by Taylor Swift, Morgan Wallen, Beyoncé, Zach Bryan et al. ever at the top of the album charts, we have seen a panoply of breakouts. At the top of that list is Island’s Sabrina Carpenter, who has gone nuclear thanks to two enormous smashes that have ruled the DSPs, having already amassed a combined 1b+ Spotify streams. The Janelle Lopez Genzink-repped star's album hasn’t dropped yet, nor has her sold-out tour begun. Buckle up. The next biggest story is Sabrina’s labelmate, Nick Bobetsky-managed Chappell Roan, with two bona fide hits and a third track making noise; her forthcoming, Dan Nigro-produced album should take things to the next level. The Grammy buzz on both is deafening.

After years as players in the publishing business, PULSE co-founders Josh Abraham and Scott Cutler have made a strong entrance as a record company. Right out of the gate, artist Tommy Richman—the first signing to PULSE Records’ JV with Brent Faiyaz’s ISO Supremacy imprint—scored one of the year’s biggest breakouts with “MILLION DOLLAR BABY,” which is currently Top 10 at Spotify global and U.S. and Top 10 at Apple Music. The song, which first broke on TikTok (aka the new radio), has amassed nearly 575m global streams on the Spot alone, hit #1 at Rhythm and Urban radio and is Top 5 at Pop. A second cut, “DEVIL IS A LIE,” is coming on strong, having entered the Top 30 of Spotify's U.S. rundown. L.A.-based PULSE has been at the epicenter of the young songwriter community for years and has real reach for a boutique outfit. It’s rare for an indie label to hit one out of the park—and into the parking lot—in its first at-bat; what do they have planned for a follow-up?

Interscope is enjoying a torrid summer thanks to Billie Eilish, Kendrick Lamar, a resurgent Eminem, O-Rod, breakouts Gracie Abrams and Reneé Rapp and Nir Seroussi’s big moves with KAROL G, J Balvin, Ivan Cornejo and Xavi, to name a few. In addition to huge streams, Kendrick’s recent work has earned attention as some of the most culturally resonant hip-hop of the last several years. Meanwhile, Team Janick assists in brainstorming a new chapter for Tom March-led Capitol, a partner on Balvin. It’s never off-topic to note that the combined East Coast and West Coast market share for the retooled UMG is, well, daunting. (While we’re on the subject of Eminem, with his new album expected to open somewhere in the vicinity of 285k, what might Taylor be pondering to take her unbroken reign at #1 to a 13th week? She would need to add about 200k to her weekly total.)

Warner, riding a rocket with Bryan, has also broken singer-songwriters Benson Boone and Teddy Swims, each of whom has had a gigundo smash. Ron Perry’s Columbia, having made bank this year with hits by established stars Beyoncé and Hozier, is starting fires on multiple fronts with Koe Wetzel, Megan Moroney (in tandem with Sony Nashville) and Central Cee, among others, and reigniting the careers of The Kid LAROI and Dominic Fike. RCA, which has enjoyed strong chart share thanks to SZA and Doja Cat, is breaking K-pop phenom Lisa and (in partnership with the U.K. label) singer-songwriter Myles Smith, not to mention rolling out new Childish Gambino music. Epic continues to score killer streams with Future, whose album with Republic's Metro Boomin has been one of the year's perennials, as well as Travis Scott, 21 Savage and Afropop comer Tyla.

There is no better indicator for the recorded-music sector of, as the Brits call it, “rude health."

COLD WATER: With no new artist-development story in several years, one major label is experiencing a prolonged cold streak. Rumors of changes at the senior executive level are a constant topic of chatter at biznik gatherings; those in the know say where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

DON’T CUT OFF YOUR GNOSIS TO SPITE YOUR FACE: The stepping down of Merck Mercuriadis as Hipgnosis Songs Management chairman ahead of Blackstone’s freshly approved purchase of the Hipgnosis Songs Fund for $1.6b in cash (plus $600m of assumed debt) feels a bit more like an intermission than a finale. Merck’s crew will be running HSF for Blackstone, with Ben Katovsky as CEO, Dan Pounder as CFO, Jon Baker as general counsel and 40 other team members involved. Merck will also certainly play a prominent part in the ongoing conversation about properly compensating writers for their work. He has already been a game changer with respect to the valuation of songs and catalogs; how else might he shift the landscape?