NEAR TRUTHS: A TOUR OF THE LANDSCAPE

TICKET TAPE: Taking the temperature of the live marketplace at this moment is a complicated matter. Insiders paint a generally positive picture, with overall grosses up—indeed, a recent six-month stretch afforded a $3b+ total for the first time. Even so, average attendance has dipped nearly 15% and average grosses have dropped by nearly 7%, a decline that was offset on the bottom line by higher ticket prices. The post-COVID rebound sent the live business to dizzying new heights, so it’s vital to remember that even with an inevitable climbdown, business is still largely booming.

The biggest, hottest tours are still raking in eye-popping receipts, Taylor’s Eras Tour (Messina Touring Group) rampaging through Europe as of this writing the most conspicuous example. In general, female pop acts are dominating, notably in arenas (WME’s O-Rod, CAA’s Sabrina). Relative newcomers like Wasserman’s Noah Kahan and Chappell Roan, WME’s Benson Boone and Reneé Rapp, CAA’s Tate McRae and UTA’s Carín León are performing strongly. Country has gone through the roof as its audience has begun to skew younger and more active. Indeed, Stagecoach sold 89k+ tickets for its one weekend, which exceeded Coachella’s second-weekend sales of about 80k after the first weekend sold out.

Coachella’s slight softening was representative of the overall festival picture (see also Bonnaroo), but there were exceptions, notably Outside Lands’ 225k overall attendance, which netted the fest $40m, a $6m or so spike from the previous year. Newer fests with niche audience appeal (such as ’80s/alternative-leaning Cruel World) have likewise fared well.

With more shows this year, more tickets are sold, but the percentage of tickets sold has cooled after the feverish sellout streak of the past two years. Inflation has surely been a factor, along with an inevitable leveling off of the mad rush to venues that followed the pandemic. Meanwhile, tours that simply don’t have the heat have often taken a drubbing and been forced to cancel dates; live-sector peeps tend to agree that a pricing correction is in order to help these tours stay afloat. J. Lo and The Black Keys have been forced to cancel, while Peso Pluma has underperformed in some markets. There has also been some softness in the festival market, particularly for the mid-market confabs, exacerbated by the difficulty of securing crowd-pleasing headliners when so many acts are out on their own tours. Smaller venues, too, are feeling the pinch as audiences assess their expenditures. With all that acknowledged, though, it’s fair to say that live is still kicking, even if the delirious rebound heat has cooled somewhat.

TEARS AND A SMILE: We’re mourning the death of Larry Vallon, who died yesterday. Larry’s time at Universal Amphitheatre was legendary, and that big smile was a signature part of the warm welcome he extended to all us industry weasels. He will be missed.

ONE MANAGER AT A TIME: In a surprise move, Morgan Wallen has moved his management from longtime rep Seth England (to whose Big Loud label he remains signed) to booking agent Austin Neal as part of a new management company, Sticks, co-founded by Wallen and Neal, with Wallen as its sole client. It’s an unorthodox arrangement for a superstar’s booking and management to be handled by a single person. The management alone is a big job—records, publishing, touring, branding. Will Neal handle all of it? Some observers say if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Wallen, whose publishing had been with Big Loud, inked a pub deal with Warner Chappell early in 2024 that included new music (not his catalog) and the ability to sign other writers. Wallen was repped for legal in the latter pact by Ken Kraus at Loeb & Loeb.

The Big Loud model has been to sign management clients to record and/or pub deals, putting acts together on records and tours. Like the Motown model, it gives the company ownership of most if not all aspects of the acts’ careers. Big Loud has been valued at $1 billion, and rumor has it England and partners Joey Moi and Craig Wiseman passed on $600m and $800m offers to merge with other companies before signing a new distro deal with UMG. How might the exit of Wallen as a management client affect that valuation?

MOM ROCK: Some major artists are taking a page from the Taylor playbook and involving their parents in their careers—and beginning to replace such inner-circle players as business managers, attorneys, personal managers and agents in hopes of replicating Tay’s extraordinary success. One formidable longtime business manager was fired after 25 years when the artist didn’t like the bottom-line numbers from her sizable recent tour.