PREDICTION: STREAMS TO DRIVE BIZ GROWTH FOR A DECADE

The Financial Times has taken a look at the recorded music industry and decided “the Internet may resurrect the business it almost killed.” They base this on streaming services topping 100m paid subscribers worldwide and the U.S. industry looking at two consecutive years of growth for the first time since 1999.

Key to their story is a Goldman Sachs report issued in December that predicts streaming will dwarf sales and licensing income by 2030 when the recorded music business will be valued at just shy of $30b. Fueling that growth will be a rise in streaming revenue to $14.1b. “For the first time, you create a recurring stream of revenue,” says Lisa Yang of Goldman Sachs Research.

The music industry overall—which includes concert revenue and publishing in addition to recorded music—will double in the next 13 years, according to Goldman Sachs’ rosy prognostication: $104b from $54b.

Some of the FT’s observations:

Music groups have leverage over tech companies.

Labels are better positioned than TV studios were when Netflix became a streaming service.

Consolidation among streaming services is inevitable.

Songwriters are the big losers in the streaming world.

Irving Azoff is among the 20 people from the business’ recent golden age who continue to make money from music today.