I.B. BAD: Q4 RACE READY TO BEGIN

At least EMI is going out on a high note with the release of Mylo Xyloto, which follows a pair of worldwide smashes in 2008’s Viva La Vida (13m) and 2005’s X&Y (11.2m), making each the best-selling album by far in its year of release. All three marketing campaigns were expertly orchestrated by manager Dave Holmes, the latter two in collaboration with EMI stalwart Greg Thompson, amid ever-more trying times at the #4 music group. For the rest of the EMI story, see the first part of this week's I.B. Bad column here… The new LP is the third biggest debut of a year in which the business has experienced an unexpected uptick in sales, and there are enough potential hit albums scheduled to hit between now and mid-December to suggest that 2011 will wind up in positive territory. Coldplay leads a trifecta this week, followed by #2 Kelly Clarkson with a robust 170k (last LP, 925k), the first notch in the gun of the Peter Edge-Tom Corson team at the new RCA, and #3 Michael Buble, with 142k (2.1m), who gives Rob Cavallo and Todd Moscowitz’s Warner Bros. a strong shot at another big Christmas album. This Tuesday, WBR released the label debut of rapper Wale, who’s en route to a surprisingly strong debut. While the rest of this week’s slate of releases won’t have a stratospheric debut like Coldplay’s, Justin Bieber’s Christmas album on Steve Bartels’ IDJ should wind up in a race with Buble, as the teen superstar builds on his 2010 breakthrough (2.95m), while Syco/Columbia’s Susan Boyle comes off last year’s biggest seasonal offering (2m). Also this week, Florence + the Machine (770k) on Monte Lipman’s Universal Republic and RCA Nashville’s Miranda Lambert (1.39m) come with the important follow-ups to their career-establishing albums. On Nov. 15, Cash Money/Universal Republic will release a potential blockbuster with Drake (1.45m). But Q4’s most potent release slate—on paper, at least—arrives on the Monday of Thanksgiving week (11/21) with IDJ’s Rihanna (1.47m), Geffen’s Mary J. Blige (875k), 19/RCA’s Daughtry (1.3m) and mega-selling rock band Nickelback (3.13m), in its final LP under the current contract with Roadrunner/Atlantic, though it has a 360 deal with Live Nation in place. There’s also a live CD/DVD hitting the day after Thanksgiving from Big Machine’s Taylor Swift, but it’s highly unlikely that the package will approach the 3.66m of the studio album she released just over a year ago. The year’s final significant rock release comes on Dec. 6 from WB/Nonesuch’s Black Keys (860k), who could be riding a great deal of momentum behind lead single “Lonely Boy,” a one-listen grabber that was immediately embraced by radio programmers when they received it last week. Also coming Dec. 6 is RCA’s T-Pain, who already has a red-hot first single in “5 O’Clock” featuring Wiz Khalifa and Capitol PoMo diva Lily Allen, the latter in a star turn… Barry Weiss has brought in his Jive team of Ivan Gavin and Peter Thea, further cementing his base of operations as UMG East’s chief... Despite rumors to the contrary, Kevin Lawrie will not be L.A. Reid’s right-hand man at Epic, but there’s a new name in the mix from Reid’s storied past that is making the rumor mill hum. Speculators are speculating that Reid is about to name Mark Shimmel, his onetime trusted cohort at LaFace and Arista, to a high-ranking post at the label. The well-liked Shimmel is currently Head of Music at Turner Networks… The two biggest DIY stories of 2011 continue to gain steam as the year plays out. The re-formed Bush’s self-released LP, Sea of Memories, on bandleader Gavin Rossdale’s Zuma Rock label, has spawned Q4’s biggest Alternative single in “The Sound of Winter,” which has been #1 at the format for four weeks. And The Civil Wars’ debut album, Barton Hollow, released in February, has gradually gained momentum on the way to its first 200k, amid predictions of a Best New Artist Grammy nomination. The man behind this impressive developing story is Nashville-based Nate Yetton, who manages the duo, runs their sensibility label and is married to group’s Joy Williams