The real story is the new Pearl Jam album, on its own Monkeywrench label, but using a distribution coalition that includes Target, iTunes, Verizon mobile wireless, Harmonix/MTV’s Rock Band and CIMS indie retailers, which will sell around 200k.

PEARLS BEFORE SWINE: JAM LOOKS TO BOW #1

Target/Indie/iTunes Exclusive Should Sell Around 200k, Three Days Grace Debuts
Never mind the fact McKenzie Phillips slept with her dad, Papa John.

The real story is the new Pearl Jam album, on its own Monkeywrench label, but using a distribution coalition that includes Target, iTunes, Verizon mobile wireless, Harmonix/MTV’s Rock Band and CIMS indie retailers, which will sell around 200k of Backspacer, giving them the edge to bow at #1 on next week’s HITS album chart.

That’s based on one-day sales information from our own secret cabal of retail spies who moonlight undercover for children’s protective services in their spare time. Wonder what they think of “California Dreaming” now.

Jive/JLG rockers Three Days Grace should be the next highest debut, with an estimated first-week sales total between 80-85k.

DGC/Interscope emo-punk group Brand New’s Daisy should do around 45-50k, followed by Five Finger Death Punch on Jeff Kwatinetz’s Prospect Park label at 35-40k.

U.K. singer/songwriter David Gray’s new Downtown album, Draw the Line, his first since 2005’s Life in Slow Motion, looks to be in the 30-35k range, the same as Columbia crooner Harry Connick Jr.’s Clive Davis-A&R’ed new album of covers, Your Songs.

Casablanca/Universal Motown’s Grammy-nominated and Brit Award-winning singer/ songwriter Mika, whose The Boy Who Knew Too Much has been compared to Elton John and Queen, should debut at between 25-30k, the same as Shangri-La Music’s rock supergroup Monsters of Folk, which features Conor Oberst, My Morning Jacket’s Jim James, M. Ward and Bright EyesMike Mogis.

Beluga Heights/Epic’s Sean Kingston is up next with 15-18k sales on his new album, Tomorrow, which has already scored a hit single in “Fire Burning.”

The market was down 4% vs. last week, down 7% vs. same week last year and still down 14% year to date.

You may now return to fantasizing about shooting heroin, sleeping with your father and starring in One Day at a Time.

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