LENNYBEERBLOG:
THE GRAMMY EFFECT
So, if we are going to be prognosticators (and heck, it's always fun to guess), who do we think the big sales winners are going to be? This week, in the latest issue of HITS magazine, world -famous Grammy prognosticator Paul Grein lists his locks and contenders for the noms. Grein feels that Kanye West, Amy Winehouse and Daughtry are shoo-ins for the Album of the Year category. He gives a high-probability nod to Bruce Springsteen in the fourth slot and lists a wide-open field battling for the last position. I, on the other hand, have West, Winehouse and Springsteen as locks and see a battle for the fourth and fifth slots among Taylor Swift, Feist, Sugarland, Maroon 5 and Paul McCartney, with the aforementioned Daughtry as a wildcard.
The initial sales winners will come from the Best Album nominees and those with the most nominations. Read the names in the headlines the next day and immediately follow their sales trajectories. The action will begin there and then spread out.
The big-big-BIG action comes the night of the Grammys online, and the following days both online and at traditional retail. Sometimes a great performance can overshadow a series of wins. And sometimes when a great performance goes hand in hand with multiple wins, as was the case with Dixie Chicks last year, the real magic happens.
But most everyone who appears on the show will see significant growth, making these on-air slots the most valued in the industry. And that makes producer/head booker Ken Ehrlich the most popular man in the business between now and Grammy night.
I'm betting that when the smoke clears, Kanye West. Amy Winehouse and Bruce Springsteen will be big winners. And that Taylor Swift will be the biggest surprise to those of you who have ignored her fast-building bandwagon. Stay tuned, and let the games begin.
Tell us who you think should be nominated and who you expect to be the biggest sales winners at [email protected].
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People that are talking about Carrie this and Carrie that are forgetting one thing about the Grammys and Country music. They tend to go for non-Mainstream Country.
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Well, certainly only big categories have been discussed and some genre-specific are being forgotten. When it comes to Country, there is a huge name there written all over the place and that is CARRIE UNDERWOOD.
She will be nominated for:
Country Vocal Performance
Country Song
Record of the Year
Song of the Year
The last two are for "Before He Cheats." This song just broke the record for the 21st century longest-running single in the Hot 100. It spent 64 weeks in this chart. It spent 5 weeks at #1 in the Country charts. It's sold almost 2 million copies and it has been a HUGE crossover hit. It also comes from the debut album of the reigning Best New Artist Grammy Winner. Besides, it has won pretty much every single nomination it has received in the Country world, including the coveted CMA Single of the Year.
Thanks,
etrejos
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I don't get the whole "Daughtry" thing. He didn't develop or even refine the style, he just copied it and phoned it in for the CD since his "band" is not the various studio musicians on the album. Yes, he has high numbers, but it was played on the TV every week for half the year. If that gets you a Grammy, then Miley Cyrus should win since she sold more CDs, DVDs and concert tickets than all the other potential nominees combined. You don't see her name up there because she's Disney. So it's corporate affiliation that determines the Grammy? Like you said, Grammy=Sales=Money. Large record companies have lots of people with lots of votes...for now.
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Where is Radiohead for Album of the Year?!?!?! Are they not eligible because it was a download only so far?
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I think the Idols will take charge of the Grammys. If anyone saw the AMAs, they're like 85% of the Grammy's final voters, so with Underwood and Daughtry winning all night, you'll see them taking Grammy trophies home:
John Mayer, "Dreaming with a Broken Heart"
Juanes, La Vida es un Raticao
Rabanes, Kamikaze
Calliche81
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Dear Lenny:
I agree with alot of your predictions, but feel very strongly that you forgot Carrie Underwood's "Before He Cheats," somehow. It spent over 60 weeks in the Hot 100, and five weeks at #1. It became a Top 5 Pop hit, and sold almost 2 million digital downloads. It was, in short, one of the biggest songs of the year. I really think it should get Record, Song, and Country Song of the year.
Also, I disagree with you about Taylor Swift. She will likely sneak in a Best New Artist nom, but she is a very poor live singer. In fact, even on her CD, she is weak, pitchy and has no range or power. At the Rockefeller Tree Lighting ceremony last night, she destroyed "Silent Night." LOL. I just don't get the hype over her.
Carrie Underwood, on the other hand, is a truly gifted vocalist, and proved it last year at the Frammys. I am just curious why you have so much Taylor love, when she cannot sing very well, yet you skipped Carrie altogether? Thanks. I look forward to your reply.
Alison
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If Feist isn't nominated OR doesn't win, I may go absolutely ape-shit. Best album I have heard in years, and I was a fan long before the iPod campaign. I'm guessing Winehouse will win Album of the Year even though I thought it is extremely samey-samey and her live performance was unbelievably sleepy (not that that is a factor for the nom). My two cents.
Legacy Recordings
Lenny -
As far as my comments... I actually won't have any as I pay almost no attention to the Grammys anymore.
The one thing I do know is that the Eagles album should be nominated in several categories... it's simply one of the best albums put out by anybody in years.
But I don't really care who wins "Best Spoken Word" album (does anybody?)... so I don't even watch the show.
Congrats to whoever wins those nice little trophies. The artistic endeavors of artists should be recognized, but the real winners, of course, win at the cash register.
Steve Meyer
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I feel that Rihanna should be nominated for Record of the Year and R&B female artist and possibly deserves to win. Just wanted to know if you think Rihanna will be nominated. Thanks for your time.
Eddie Ramos
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I have seven artists fighting for the five spots with two locks...
Kanye West and Amy Winehouse are the two locks.
Norah Jones, Maroon 5, Linkin Park, Bruce Springstein and Paul McCartney are in the mix.
I can't see how the Grammys will pass up Norah, her last two albums have been mega-hits with them and I think this album was just as good if not better...
Overall, though, I could see Kanye being the big winner with eight or nine noms and 5 or 6 winners like the Dixie Chicks last year...
mjbern23
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Superwest2007
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