ONE-DAY SALES: FANS SAY “IT’S ALL ABOUT THE MATERIAL, GIRL”

A pair of potentially big records from female singers from different generations streeted yesterday, with Madonna holding a slight lead over Carrie Underwood in the early going. Right now, the Material Girl’s Warner Bros. album is looking like 325k-350k, while the J/RMG debut from the 2005 American Idol winner is trending at 300k-325k. That said, let us not forget that the CMA Awards were telecast last night, with Underwood singing her current Country hit, “Jesus, Take the Wheel,” and the phenomenon that industryites have dubbed “the CMA factor” makes this race too close to call, considering said factor could easily sweep young Carrie to 350k or beyond.

That same phenomenon could effect a number of other records from Area Code 615, not the least of them this week’s #1—and the biggest debut of Q4 so far—from Kenny Chesney from the potent RLG stable. Look for significant jumps as well from the night’s big winners, Keith Urban, Lee Ann Womack and Brooks & Dunn.

The other debut that could get a kick in the rear from the CMA factor is the follow-up to the 2004 smash from Big & Rich (Warner Nashville), initially looking soft at 125k-150k, but the duo was whoopin’ it up on the show as well, of course.

Island/IDJ has come with an expanded CD+DVD repackage of Mariah Carey’s mega-hit The Emancipation of Mimi, which also contains her latest hit single. This gambit worked wonders last year for Usher, and it’ll solidify the album’s status as the second-biggest seller of 2005 (behind 50 Cent’s The Massacre). Early reports have the beefed-up Mimi shimmying toward the140k-160k hood, and additional sales on the old version could bring the total to 175k or so.

Columbia’s much-ballyhooed reissue of Bruce Springsteen’s 1975 landmark Born to Run containing a concert from the same year and a making-of doc appears to be headed toward 45k-50k, not bad for a $30 package.

The other 11/15 releases looking to do some serious biz are Epic’s Ginuwine, with100k in his sites, and a Green Day live set (Reprise), which should notch up 85k-100k.

The week just completed was a comparatively odd one, up by 9.6% (or a cool million units) over last week but down by 13.7% (or 1.9 million) from the comparable week of 2004. Reason being that week a year ago saw the release of Eminem’s Encore, which bowed at 710k. Hence, year-to-date sales are off by 9.7% (or 51.3 million) at 479.2 million pieces.