RUMOR MILL
Tuesday, January 15, 2002
ONLINE MUSIC MARKET FORECAST CUT BACK
Jupiter Media Metrix Reduces Five-Year Estimate
Internet research firm Jupiter Media Metrix has reduced its 2006 forecast for the scope of the online music market, trimming it from $6.2 billion to $5.5 billion. The difference will be taken out of your paycheck before taxes, so you probably won't even notice.
The five-year forecast was lowered due to weakness in the economy and music sales, plus delays in the launch of subscription services. Jupiter still believes that online music will account for one-third of music biz income in 2006, with $1 billion alone coming from subscriptions. To get an appreciation of how much money that is, take a dollar bill from your wallet. Now imagine having a billion of those dollar bills. Whoa.
As part of its forecast, Jupiter believes that labels' subscription services could very well pick up customers from file-swappers currently using Morpheus and KaZaA.
Reuters estimates that online revenues last year were $900 million.
