Q4 SO FAR: UMG RULES

A few years ago, the idea of 30% marketshare was unthinkable in the music biz. Then came UMG. The Doug Morris-led music group’s 30% share looks like it’s headed even higher as we approach the halfway point of the fourth quarter, with Shady/Interscope’s 8 Mile soundtrack propelling (and riding) the wave of Eminem mania—a phenomenon that’s also boosting sales of The Eminem Show, the year’s biggest seller at around 7 million domestically.

Interscope isn’t the only label that’s getting the job done for UMG. Island Def Jam’s new Jay-Z release will bolster an already impressive 2002, which will continue to see Ashanti sell through Q4.

BMG’s second-place standing has a lot to do with Arista, which added Santana to Avril Lavigne, while RCA’s Christina Aguilera is helping that label’s fourth-quarter push. And although the teenpop boom has subsided, Justin Timberlake’s sales won’t hurt the bottom line at Jive.

Sony’s in third place, as Columbia remains the model of consistency on the label side, posting a better than 8% marketshare by crossing the Dixie Chicks, breaking young artists like John Mayer and schooling the rest of the industry about the commercial power of veteran acts like Bruce Springsteen and James Taylor. Sister label Epic’s 6% share should grow in the second half of Q4 via Jennifer Lopez, Audioslave and Pearl Jam.

WMG is expecting a strong quarter from Warner Bros.’ Faith Hill and should see its marketshare increase with new ones from Atlantic’s Matchbox Twenty and Elektra’s Missy Elliott.

Fifth-place EMI, which continues to rebuild its North American operations under Alain Levy and David Munns, has a phenomenon on its hands with Blue Note’s Norah Jones. The Q4 slate contains a pair of Beatles, as Capitol comes with a Paul McCartney live set and George Harrison’s final album.

LABEL GROUPS
UMG 30.5%
BMG 17.0%
SONY 16.4%
WMG 15.3%
EMI 8.5%

TOP 10 LABELS
1. IGA 9.7%
2. Columbia 8.2%
3. IDJ 8.1%
4. Warner Bros. 6.2%
5. Epic 6.0%
6. Universal 4.8%
7. Arista 4.5%
8. Atlantic 3.4%
9. RCA Nashville 2.5%
10. MCA 2.4%