Near Truths

by i.b. bad, los angeles

TUESDAY WILL TELL

April 8, 2025

Bigxthaplug

Bigxthaplug

bailey zimmerman

bailey zimmerman

Sleep Token

Sleep Token

Alex Warren

Alex Warren

TUESDAY, TUESDAY: An array of new records—by newcomers and superstars alike—is reshaping the DSP landscape. Most analysts calculate that, as far as pacesetter Spotify is concerned, Saturday and Tuesday are the days to watch as new arrivals make their first impressions during the weekend and, when the heavy-duty weekday listeners check back in, we see what’s real.

The hottest new arrival is “All the Way,” a rap-country collab by BigXthaPlug and Bailey Zimmerman (UnitedMasters/Atlantic/Warner Nashville), now Top 5 on the Spot U.S. and #2 at Apple Music. The song landed with a boom and could be here for a while. It’s yet another example of country’s growing reach beyond the ambit of Nashville.

The mysterious rock act Sleep Token (on Peter Edge’s RCA), which shook things up with previous cut “Emergence,” appears to be riding a rocket with “Caramel” (now #11 U.S.) and a new album due 5/9 that looks likely to make a big chart noise. The masked British band’s portentous setup, with “behold this offering”-type looks on TikTok and merch that amplifies their clever world-building (think Game of Thrones meets Slipknot but more gamified), is catnip to fans, and the lads have already sold out their arena tour. All this inspired marketing, of course, would be meaningless if the music didn’t stick. Sleep Token blends metal, melody and mystique as well as any band to hit the mainstream in modern memory. Could this be a harbinger of a longed-for rock revival, or is it a fascinating anomaly?

malcolm todd

malcolm todd

sombr

sombr

Leon Thomas

Leon Thomas

drake

drake

Atlantic’s hot streak is undeniable, and the team is showing a remarkable capacity to break records that were already in the system but languishing under the old regime—among biz watchers, “to 10K a record” is becoming a thing. See BigX/Bailey above, while Alex Warren looks like he’s here to stay as “Ordinary” blazes into the Top 5 at the Spot global and U.S. and The Marías see genuine heat with a couple of tracks, led by U.S. Top 15 streamer "No One Noticed"; "Back to Me" and their collab with benny blanco and Selena Gomez, “Ojos Tristes,” are bubbling under. Ravyn Lenae, meanwhile, has entered the U.S. Top 50 (a new peak) and is growing.

Ron Perry’s Columbia looks to have a breakthrough with alterna-pop kid Malcolm Todd, whose TikTok-fortified “Chest Pain (I Love)” has moved into the Spot’s domestic Top 25. Warner’s emo troubadour sombr, an Aaron Bay-Schuck signing and another recent breakout, has jumped nine to #37 global and 14 to #26 U.S.—both new peaks—with “back to friends,” and follow-up “undressed” has flown into the U.S. Top 50.

Leon Thomas, on Tom March’s Capitol via EZMNY/Motown, is making serious inroads with single “Mutt,” which has gotten a big boost from a version featuring Chris Brown. The R&B cut has jumped 11 slots on the Spotify U.S. chart. If the two versions were added together, the song would be in the Top 15.

Drake’s “NOKIA,” which appears on his album with PARTYNEXTDOOR (via Republic/OVO/Santa Anna), is a bona fide monster, having moved to #1 on the Spot U.S. and Apple Music’s overall singles chart. The smash couldn’t come at a better time, as Drake (urged on by attorney Theo Sedlmayr) has persisted in litigation with UMG in the wake of Kendrick Lamar’s excoriating megahit “Not Like Us.” “NOKIA” proves that Drake is still a colossus astride the landscape.

Nat Pastor

Nat Pastor

Eliah Seton

Eliah Seton

Lonny Olinick

Lonny Olinick

Ghazi Shami

Ghazi Shami

CHECK THE GPS: The question asked about the Luminate/Billboard charts these days can roughly be summarized as follows: What the actual fuck? The drama surrounding the most recent chart, which saw Luminate throw out a ton of sales that were the bulk of an act’s chart showing, has caused industryites to ask what exactly Rob Jonas and team are up to and what bizarre, Byzantine calculations were behind all this. Rumor has it that the artist’s imprint is threatening legal action.

SPLIT DECISIONS: Independent distribution for indie labels and artists is gaining traction as the majors pursue distro deals with new and established acts. The decades-long era of the 80/20 split—whereby the artist got 20% and the label and distributor took 80%—is largely over. Indeed, it’s looking more and more (with certain key exceptions) like a 20/80 world, in which labels and distributors take the 20. Most big artists are negotiating distro fees lower than 20%, and the independent-distribution world is shrinking as mergers and consolidations reduce the available options.

Besides the disruptive Orchard, with its sizable market share, Virgin, having closed the Downtown deal, has become even more of a factor. [PIAS] is also part of the UMG system. Universal likewise distributes Concord Music Group, a conduit for about 30 smaller labels. WMG has ADA, and the West Coast is launching another indie-distro arm, Revolution. BMG distributes a score of smaller imprints. EMPIRE has shepherded several big hits. SoundCloud is a huge vehicle for surfacing and tracking emerging acts—its strength as a data engine was recently flexed in its “Music Intelligence” report. gamma. has quickly become a player, having built a nimble music company on a strong distro backbone. AWAL is fielding a number of successes. OneRPM is a global factor, with particular strength in the Latin world. And DistroKid retains big volume. How long before more of the smaller players, amply demonstrating their effectiveness, are absorbed by the behemoths?