Why the hell would we go out on a limb to predict who’s going to win in the top Grammy categories when we’ve been famously, ridiculously wrong so many times and Grammys gonna Grammy™ anyway? Mainly because we’re stir crazy and need something new for the website, but also because, hey, it’s the End Times, so why not? Besides, nobody remembers anybody’s predictions, and it’s already widely known that we’re idiots.

And with those caveats out of the way, let’s get on with the prognostication.

BEST NEW ARTIST

Simon: This is the strongest BNA field in years; most of the nominees had a major impact on the marketplace and the culture.

Lenny: No question, which is why, from what I’m hearing, all the nominees will be performing on the show, unlike last year.

Chappell Roan and Sabrina Carpenter are bona fide superstars and potentially contenders to sweep. Doechii has raised her profile with some terrific performances and a really good record. Shaboozey, Benson Boone and Teddy Swims all had huge hits that also happened to be great. RAYE is a scary talent and has made big inroads on both sides of the pond. We’re looking forward to seeing all the BNA nominees onstage.

Simon: Considering the silliness that’s gone on in this category in the past, they certainly got it right this time—you couldn’t really complain if any of the acts we mentioned took the trophy.

For my money, it still seems like it’s Chappell’s race to lose—hearing my non-industry friends and relatives joyously singing her songs, which they found out about from their kids, kinda blew my mind. But it definitely feels as though Doechii has gained momentum and has an aura of incipient stardom about her. It’s exciting to see her owning the spotlight.

Lenny: Agreed. Chappell is my “will win.” Doechii is my “could win.”

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

Simon: Of all the categories we’re wrong about, AOTY has consistently been the leader. That said, I’m going to pick Beyoncé, whose COWBOY CARTER was a cultural phenomenon and fielded a great big single. There’s a widespread sense that she’s owed after being snubbed so many times in this category, and I think her project’s attempt to correct the historical record RE: country resonates in Grammyland.

Lenny: So given our track record, Beyoncé should be worried. I thought her Christmas halftime performance on Netflix, by the way, was nothing short of astounding.

Simon: It’s also worth noting that Taylor Swift has won this prize no fewer than four times and the album for which she is currently nominated, THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT, was—to use the terminology of our data team—gigundo boffo huge. So she’s always dangerous and especially so after the world-conquering year she just had.

Lenny: Good point. We really should do some editorial about her sometime.

That said, my pick is Chappell Roan’s The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess. Not only was she the big breakout story of 2024, but most of the industry people I talk to say that hers was simply the best album of the year. So, if voting counts, she could be the upset winner here.

Simon: That’s a big if.

RECORD OF THE YEAR

Lenny: I’m going pick Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us,” which was just gigantic by every measure and the hardest-hitting entry in the category by a mile. Hip-hop is underrepresented in the top categories, and this showed that the genre can still be huge in the mainstream without sacrificing any of its power. My wild card would be Billie Eilish for “BIRDS OF A FEATHER.”

Simon: Kendrick had a massive year and is about to have another one. Even so, I’m going with Shaboozey. “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” was just everywhere, an absolutely undeniable, insanely catchy record that was in every bar, every car and every bumper. I think he makes Beyoncé’s point about country even better than she did. My wild card is Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso.” It’s a perfectly crafted pop recording with that elusive mystery ingredient that turns a song into a phenomenon.

SONG OF THE YEAR

Lenny: I’ve got Billie in this category for “BIRDS OF A FEATHER,” which is just a great song. She really didn’t hit a false note all year and just keeps reaching new plateaus creatively and commercially. As a songwriter, she’s doing her most honest, vulnerable work.

Simon: Same here. Billie leveled up hugely in 2024 and has exceeded even the sky-high expectations set by her win for BNA a few years ago. And winning in this category means she shares the win with FINNEAS, which would likely provide another great moment at the podium. My wild card is Chappell’s “Good Luck, Babe!” It’s not hard to imagine her running the table.

Lenny: And “Good luck, babe” is what I say to us, with our farkakteh predictions. I’m looking forward to finding out how crushingly wrong we are once again.

Simon: Yeah, that’ll be fun.