NEAR TRUTHS: REALIGNMENT AND RECOGNITION
THE YEAR’S HOTTEST GROUPS: The Grammy nominations, announced with requisite fanfare on 11/8, brought glad tidings to multiple majors. They also underline the preeminent industry narratives of 2024 regarding the realignment of the major companies in the UMG world, and how those two companies have dominated the landscape in current and overall market share and remained at the forefront of artist development, as well as the transformation of both top labels at WMG.
Republic and Interscope have had incredible years, and Sir Lucian Grainge’s shrewd reorganization of the East and West Coast under Monte Lipman and John Janick, respectively, continues to work brilliantly. Both companies racked up boffo Grammy-nomination scores, and during the past year, Island broke not only two major artists in Chappell Roan and Sabrina Carpenter but two major executives in Imran Majid and Justin Eshak, who were handpicked by LG. The blazing 2024 enjoyed by Island (under the larger Lipman umbrella) could well be the biggest story of the year.
Mercury’s Tyler Arnold and Ben Adelson, also part of Republic, oversaw the wildly successful relaunch (actually, “reboot” seems apt here) of Post Malone and the long tail of their other big act, Noah Kahan, surging in 2024. Post’s big, Grammy-nominated album (which earned him multiple noms in Country), along with fellow nominees Morgan Wallen (on Seth England’s Big Loud) and Jelly Roll (via Jon Loba’s BBR), helped give the Lipmans an 18% current country share, far and away the biggest for a coastal label not affiliated with a traditional Nashville major.
All this took place as Republic’s former murderer’s row of Drake, Ariana Grande (nominated in Pop) and The Weeknd spent a relatively quiet 2024—unlike #1 home-run hitter Taylor Swift, who, remarkably, has posted a personal market share of 1.7 (about 15.6m U.S. units; you could probably add another 6m from global activity), which is bigger than Mercury, Big Loud and Imperial combined. And that’s just so far this year; slated to hit shelves on 11/29 is THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT: The Anthology (physical only), just in time to stuff 2024's stockings.
As for Ari, she’s about to reclaim the spotlight in a big way as the co-star of Wicked. Those who’ve had an early look at the film expect it to have a seismic impact on the nation’s multiplexes. Even so, we really miss Bert Lahr.
WIDENING SCOPE: House Janick trumpeted its 75 nods, including those earned by Capitol—led by Big 4 love for Billie Eilish, Kendrick Lamar (who earned seven apiece) and Lady Gaga. Janick, Steve Berman, Tom March, Top Dawg and their teams also cheered a BNA nom and substantive Rap-category love for Doechii, another big artist-development story.
Janick’s artist-development prowess looks unmatched, given Eilish’s career-defining year (now including noms for AOTY, ROTY and SOTY), which has included switching lawyers (to Don Passman) and agencies (from Wasserman to WME). Other ICLG highlights include genre nominees Gracie Abrams (who recently scored a Spotify U.S. #1) and GloRilla, not to mention bringing Capitol into the Interscope way of doing business. In less than nine months, the aggressive March and team have made Capitol a competitive label again. Is Doechii now poised to level up? Meanwhile, Gaga is positioned for a huge 2025 with her next album on the heels of her SOTY-nominated Bruno Mars duet, “Die With a Smile,” and Kendrick Lamar, with ROTY and SOTY nods for “Not Like Us,” keeps growing his massive reach ahead of what will be a gargantuan Super Bowl look. Add Grammy love for Eminem, J. Cole, Jacob Collier, Kali Uchis and promising kids like The Beatles and The Rolling Stones, to name but a few, and you have a sense of Team Janick’s mood at present.
“THINGS” AND STUFF: The other major story dominating the yearly news cycle was WMG’s late-year shakeup of Atlantic and the breaking of Aaron Bay-Schuck and Tom Corson’s regime with two major artists, Benson Boone and Teddy Swims, at the top of the year, following the explosive growth of Zach Bryan. Benson and Teddy both made the BNA shortlist, though the former’s smash, “Beautiful Things,” was completely snubbed, to the bewilderment of Grammy watchers.
Despite his disinterest in Grammyland, Bryan has become a major sales force in North America in both streams and tickets. Indeed, it’s believed his Hyde Park show will be even bigger than Morgan Wallen’s last year, and that it could jump-start momentum for the Warner star in Europe.
Then there's the monumental changing of the guard at Atlantic engineered by WMG topper Robert Kyncl after a 20-year stewardship by Julie Greenwald and Craig Kallman, whose market share had dipped from double digits to under 5% over the last few years. Beyond the numbers, a kind of malaise had infected the company, depressing morale. This overall decline had prompted the decision by WMG leadership to bring in fresh blood. That move appears to have been spot on, judging by the immediate aftermath, as the careers of multiple Grammy nominee Charli xcx and BLACKPINK member and solo artist ROSÉ are going gangbusters—and the early returns on the Elliot Grainge administration seem to have House WMG feeling upbeat about new beginnings. Meanwhile, label superstar Bruno Mars is seeing a renewed career arc thanks to his MVP role on the top two records on Spotify’s global chart (with Gaga and ROSÉ). What’s next for the artist during this prolific phase? Are new singles or an album in the offing?
VIEWING PLATFORMS: We expect Taylor Swift and Beyoncé to figure prominently on the Grammy telecast. How will the Academy throw enough goodies at Tay, the biggest ratings-grabber in the galaxy, to make sure she shows up? Ben Winston and team have tweaked the format, resulting in the best ratings in years—notably taking a page from the Golden Globes by putting stars at tables up front, where they can be observed in their natural habitat.
Will 2025 be the year Bey, the most-nominated artist this year (and of all time) finally gets her AOTY trophy, or will one of the other strong contenders give us a new champion? Is a long-shot surprise in the works? In any case, we know Bey’s bound to win Album sooner or later. In other news, could the strength of this year’s nominees help drive greater voter turnout?
FULL HAND: Of course the 2024 story of Rob Stringer's Sony Music is about more than Bey’s armload of poker chips; the company began its fiscal year in April hot as a pistol, with Travis Scott, Future (who just earned four noms) and Hozier on fire.
Meanwhile, SZA (who also snagged a nom) remains one of the most important acts in the business, Doja Cat’s career continues to grow, with touring numbers through the roof, and rock band The Red Clay Strays is clearly one of the year’s best signings. As for other top noms, André 3000’s experimental flute set on Epic is an AOTY contender.
Still, the Academy’s decision not to acknowledge Future in the top categories, or Scott or Hozier at all, seems like a real miss—especially the latter, who had a comeback megahit, “Too Sweet,” that was one of the year’s biggest songs and who possesses an extra-cool vibe. Why couldn’t the Academy find a way to acknowledge this engaging smash? The snub has us scratching our heads. In any event, Ron Perry’s Columbia spent most of this year developing new acts like Central Cee, Addison Rae and Megan Moroney and is poised for further growth in 2025.
