NEAR TRUTHS: TICKETS AND CITATIONS
RECEIPTS: The live sector remains exceptionally strong, with most metrics (tour grosses, show volume, audience size, ticket prices) showing year-over-year increases and a midyear gross total that, for the first time ever, exceeded $3b. Live Nation marked the close of its Q2 with record profitability and double-digit growth in arenas and amphitheaters. The space is now wrapping up a generally very robust period of residences, festivals and stadium tours during which—despite some bumpy ground—the post-pandemic bounceback was truly in evidence. As outdoor shows begin their customary fall phase-out and basketball, hockey and football consume arena and stadium dates, some stadium and arena shows and residency gigs continue to draw record crowds amid plans for an even hotter 2025.
That heat will be scorching at AEG/Goldenvoice’s Stagecoach, which announced Zach Bryan, Jelly Roll and Luke Combs as its headliners; Stacy Vee and team have turned the country- and Americana-focused fest into a can’t-miss attraction. Meanwhile, legacy rockers are making noise on both sides of the pond as Oasis (repped for live by Primary Talent International) breaks the Internet with its massive tour announcement and Warner’s Linkin Park (WME’s L.A.-based John Marx and London-located Josh Javor repping for live) returns to huge fanfare with its first tour and new music since the death of longtime frontman Chester Bennington, with Emily Armstrong of Dead Sara as its new lead singer.
GIANT STEPS: One thing’s for sure: Travis Scott is a giant act and is wrapping up 2024 as one of the live sector’s biggest attractions. He’s the only rap star doing stadiums at present; his 2023-24 UTOPIA Tour is expected to gross $215m+, having earned close to that with 45 U.S. shows and 32 dates in Europe, South America and Australia—making it handily the top-grossing rap tour of all time. He’s also broken merch-sales records at SoFi, Crypto, MSG and United Center. Indeed, it’s too bad he couldn’t bundle his mixtape with the 1 million pairs of shoes he sold. Along with Kendrick Lamar and Future (Drake being on the injured reserve list), he’s one of the very few hip-hop stars who can move the needle. Speaking of which, why the hell has he never won a Grammy? After Travis performed on the show last year, Killer Mike walked off with all the rap hardware.
Scott’s latest album, UTOPIA (Cactus Jack/Epic), has done 2.7m in U.S. ATD; worldwide, it’s amassed 6.4b+ streams (it’s the most-streamed rap set of the last two years).
DON’T HATE THE PLAYER—HATE THE GAMING: The charts are royally fucked up. Billboard's Luminate has decimated the significance of its storied chart, once the richest metric of the state of play in the biz. The jockeying for #1—the only spot on the chart that matters anymore — has too often become a contest of manipulation as combatants scramble for one-off tricks like gamers deploying cheat codes.
That a 10-year-old SoundCloud mixtape with an SEA of about 30k could have come within inches of taking the #1 chart spot from the hottest pop act in the business only underscores how broken the current system is.
The spirited attempt by Travis Scott to wrest the crown from Island’s Sabrina Carpenter—she reportedly held onto #1 with just a .02% advantage (about 600 units)—might almost have been a protest effort to demonstrate that the present chart environment is bullshit, particularly given that hip-hop’s commercial relevance has taken some hits of late. What better time to demonstrate how the fix is in? Scott, manager David Stromberg and Sony’s Darren Stupak managed to create enough chaos with digital sales of the 2014 set (accompanied by some late-inning items direct from his hard drive) to show their muscle and make the point.
Carpenter scored Island’s first #1 album since Shawn Mendes summited the chart in 2020, and she’s approaching the 1m mark in ATD as of this writing; her album’s first week saw 2024’s third-biggest chart debut. As of this writing, Sabrina holds three of the top five spots (including #1) on the Spotify U.S. chart and four of the top six globally. Prognosticators are prognosticating that she’ll do 10m units globally.
Republic has been able to take the art of the chart to a new level—props to lieutenant Jim Roppo in particular—and Taylor Swift’s astounding retail game has helped her rule the chart for an astounding 15 nonconsecutive weeks and successfully defend the #1 spot against big debuts by Billie Eilish, Zach Bryan and Gracie Abrams, to name but three.
In any case, it shouldn’t be possible to game the chart by unleashing old mixtapes and manipulating the cost of digital downloads when this in no way expresses the true state of the marketplace. Scott has made his point; is the chart cabal paying attention?
