NINE-MONTH MARKETSHARE

Three quarters into 2022, the runaway album of the year is a Spanish-language set from a previously low-profile artist released on an indie label—an earth-shaking eruption that could have widespread and lasting implications across the biz. With Un Verano Sin Ti, released by Sony-distributed indie Rimas, Bad Bunny has ascended to fast-track superstardom, while becoming the driving force behind the exponential mainstreaming of Latin music. The door was pushed open late last year by the soundtrack to Disney’s bilingual animated feature Encanto (currently #4 on the year), which is set in Colombia, whereupon Puerto Rico’s Bunny blew it off its hinges. Each of these occurrences were totally unforeseen—but surprises are what we’ve come to expect in the modern-day music business.

True, the forces that restored prosperity to the music business in the 2010s are still very much in play. Streaming is up 12% YTD despite ongoing warnings of an impending slowdown. Hip-hop and pop still dominate the DSPs, while rock remains on life support. Household names such as Drake, Beyoncé, Taylor Swift, Adele, The Weeknd and Kendrick Lamar can still be counted on to move the needle, even if the numbers they threw off with each new album in years past are no longer quite so gargantuan or as automatic. UMG continues to tower over the rest of the business, as it has since Sir Lucian Grainge acquired the bulk of EMI 10 years ago, while the order of the top four labels of 2021—IGA, Atlantic, Republic and Columbia—hasn’t budged this year, and it will remain so when 2022 is in the books.

At the same time, unforeseen vectors have shaken up business as usual in a profound way. Bunny, Steve Lacy and Zach Bryan have followed in the gilt-heeled footsteps of 2021 unicorns Morgan Wallen, Olivia Rodrigo, Dua Lipa, Doja Cat and The Kid LAROI, along with Billie Eilish, Harry Styles, BTS, Lil Nas X, Luke Combs, Future, Lil Durk and Chris Stapleton before them. Concurrently, indies including Rimas and Big Loud (Wallen) have grown in strength to such an extent that they’ve begun leveling the playing field—this will be the first time since 2017 that no label finishes the year with a share over 10%—and the Big Three have doubled down on their indie-distribution hubs to make the most of this trend.

In September, UMG moved Virgin Music Label & Artist Services from CMG to the newly created Virgin Music Group, which also includes Ingrooves Music Group and recently acquired mtheory Artist Partnerships. Also last month, Luminate elevated WMG’s ADA to a Level 2 label group, raising the parent company’s YTD share from 16.2% to 19.5—a thoughtful welcoming gift for incoming WMG CEO Robert Kyncl. Sony’s rivals are well aware of the gains made by The Orchard, 5.7% YTD, .4% over a year ago at this time, thanks in no small measure to Bunny, and the changes they’ve made appear to mirror the Sony model.

Meanwhile, catalog share of the overall market is now up to 72.5%. According to Billboard’s definition, several albums much older than 18 months haven’t yet been designated as catalog because they have yet to fall below #100 on the Billboard 200 for at least one week, including Lil Baby’s My Turn (134 weeks), Juice WRLD’s Goodbye & Good Riddance (227), Post Malone’s Beerbongs & Bentleys (230) and Combs’ This One’s for You (277). This degree of staying power rarely occurred pre-streaming, but it’s now the prerequisite for an album to rack up millions of equivalents.

A recent Spotify study revealed more catalog tracks than ever before are charting, and that percentage will continue to increase. Indeed, catalog could reach 80% within five years if the criteria defining catalog aren’t updated for the streaming era. As a result, the majors are acutely aware of the need to sign artists with the potential to become future catalog staples rather than focusing on short-term, ephemeral gains—artists such as Bunny, Lacy, Bryan, Rodrigo, Wallen, Eilish and Styles. The template is in place, and it has a familiar ring to it—because career development is and always will be the lifeblood of the music business.