STREAMING TO HIT $80B IN 2030: REPORT

Goldman Sachs is predicting that music revenue will hit $131b by 2030 with $80b of that figure coming from recorded music. It’s largely due, of course, to streaming.

Based on their research, millennials and Gen Z will drive the growth as paid streaming services gain a greater foothold among the general population. People in the 18- to 34-year-old range are spending, on average, $163 per year on music, exceeding previous generations. Goldman Sachs’ theory is that this spending habit will continue as the youngsters age.

The leap over the next 11 years is significant: Recorded music revenue raked in $30b in 2017 and the projection is based on the theory that streaming on smartphones will grow significantly.

Streaming on smartphones was at 18% in 2018 and GS predicts that will rise to 37% by 2030 in developed markets; it will go 10% from 3% in developing markets.

Physical will decline over the next 13 years but still have a presence in the overall business while downloads become a tiny fraction of the business by 2025.

Live music revenue, a $26b business in 2017, is expected to hit $38B while publishing will more than double to $12.5b.

The biggest caveat to this growth is the fear that if labels pull catalogs and new releases from services, interest in spending on a platform will wane. According to BPI stats, access to millions of tracks is either “very important” or “fairly important” to 76% of users.

The report’s findings are here.