WE HAVE A WINNER

Justin Bieber will win this week’s race for #1 with what may end up with the year’s biggest debut—but it’s highly unlikely he’ll hold the record beyond one week.

Including track and stream equivalents, Bieber’s Purpose (RBMG/Def Jam) is currently trending to top Drake’s 535k first week of his mixtape, If You’re Reading This It’s Too Late. Bieber could see as much as 100k of his total coming from track downloads and streams. On the album chart, Bieber will fall short of this year’s record of 495k; that distinction also is Drake’s.

One Direction will land at #2 with Made in the A.M. (SYCO/Columbia).Their fifth and final set will easily eclipse the 387k first week of last year’s Four.

With both albums dramatically overperforming, many industry insiders are crediting the same-day release as the reason, with each album benefiting from the other’s fan base.

Bieber, Scooter Braun and Def Jam chief Steve Bartels—who will have three in the Top 10—have this week to celebrate their victory. Friday’s release of Adele’s 25 (XL/Columbia) could set records that may stand for decades.

Here are this week’s updated new releases:

Justin Bieber (Def Jam) 425-450k album, 525-550k SPS

One Direction (SYCO/Columbia) 400-425k, 475-500k

Logic (Def Jam) 90-95k, 95-100k

Jeezy (Def Jam) 60-65k, 65-70k

Chris Young (RCA Nashville) 55-60k, 60-65k

Kirk Franklin (RCA) 27-30k, 28-31k

Alessia Cara (Def Jam) 19-22k, 27-30k

Jeff Lynne’s ELO (Columbia) 17-20k, 18-21k