ONE-DAY SALES: THIS NICKEL IS WORTH BIG BUCKS

Nickelback, Roadrunner’s southern rock sensation (from the southern part of Canada, that is), is a lock for next week’s #1, as the band churns to a debut in the province of 250k-260k (meaning they should hit a number quite near the 255k tallied by this week’s chart champ, Gretchen Wilson). So it appears that meat-and-potatoes rock & roll, minus the outfits and the haircuts, still has a substantial following.

And so, of course, does mainstream country, as red-hot RLG launches another youngter into orbit in the comely form of Sara Evans, whose likely total of 125k-130k will give her the second biggest bow and just may be enough for #2 on the chart.

Hip-hop is represented among the 10/4 releases by Atlantic’s Twista, who has 100k in his sights. Just behind the fast-talking rapper are Fiona Apple and Franz Ferdinand, Epic’s pair of impossibly hip PoMo stars/critics’ darlings. They came out of the box practically neck and neck, with Fiona maybe a hair in front, as she trends 80k-85k, while the stylish Scots are looking 75k-80k-ish.

The week’s wild card is a hits package from Island/IDJ’s Melissa Etheridge (including a new cover of Tom Petty’s “Refugee”), whose present trend of 60k-70k could balloon following her imminent Oprah appearance. And as we’ve learned, when Oprah devotes an entire show to a musical artist, all bets are off.

Commingling in the 50k-60k sector are another pair of Atlantic acts—rockers Shinedown (who could get to 65k) and rapper Trina, plus Gospel artist Kirk Franklin (Fo Yo Soul/ZLG).

In the week just ended, the music biz performed decently, relatively speaking, racking up total sales of 10.2 million units, an increase of 4.5%, or 447k, over last week. When we dolly back, however, the picture is less positive. The week’s number is 4.6%, or 498k pieces, less than the comparable week of 2004. What’s more, the year-to-date total of 414.7million units, represents a 10.4% deficit versus a year ago. That means consumers have bought 48.2 million fewer albums than they did from January through September of 2004.