GREATEST HITS PACKAGES LEAD,
BUT WILL THEY WIN?

This was supposed to be the battle of the greatest-hits packages. Indeed, with best-of releases from Shania Twain, Toby Keith and Britney Spears hitting all in the same week, you’d think that would be the story.

And so far, it’s a good one: After one day on sale, Twain’s Greatest Hits (Mercury Nashville) and Keith’s Greatest Hits 2 (DreamWorks Nashville) are looking like they’ll rope in first weeks just shy of 500k and 400k, respectively. And both stand a good chance of trending much higher through the week thanks to their appearance on last night's CMA Awards telecast.

Spears’ Greatest Hits: My Prerogative (Jive), meanwhile, is no slouch either, looking at this point like it will sell a little over 200k for the week.

Ordinarily, the above would occupy the top three chart slots next week. And in this market, those are impressive numbers. But guess who’s back? Back again?

That’s right, the early release of Eminem’s Encore (Shady/Interscope) this Friday (11/12) throws that whole scenario into question. Why? Because one weekend of Eminem sales can beat a whole week of just about anything you can think of.

Retail pundits, saying it’s really anybody’s guess at this point, are predicting that from Friday through Sunday, the Eminem album will move anywhere from 500k to 1 million units. That means Slim Shady’s very much in contention for #1, but depending on how big a bump Twain sees from the CMAs, he may not be a lock. Stay tuned on that one.

Meanwhile, other major debuts to look for on next week’s chart include Fabolous’ Real Talk (Desert Storm/Atlantic), which looks like it will have a first week of around 200k, and Ja Rule’s R.U.L.E. (Def Jam), which should move around 150k for the week.