Mariah’s Looking Good for a Return to #1;
Oasis’ Truth to Debut
Go ahead. Call it a comeback.

After a month and a half on the chart, Mariah Carey’s The Emancipation of Mimi (Island) is poised to re-take the #1 position, further cementing her position as reigning diva, thanks to a smash album, tons of radio love, and, of course, a little help from IDJ chief Antonio “L.A.” Reid.

The scenario is this: Current chart-topper Audioslave, which came on strong with a near 266k debut this week for Out of Exile (Interscope/Epic), is expected to see the typical second-week drop of 50%; same for Common’s Be (Geffen), which came in at #2 on close to 189k sold. Meanwhile, Mariah has been selling in the 170k-180k range for weeks now with no signs of letting up, meaning that if things continue along this course, she’ll be #1 again next week.

As always, predictions such as this are based on early reports from national accounts and could change completely by tomorrow (or the next day), at which point we will likely pretend that this story never existed. Thank you.

The highest-debuting record on next week’s chart, which happens also to be this week’s only major release, will be OasisDon’t Believe the Truth (Epic). Those early reports from national accounts we just mentioned indicate that the Brit-poppers’ latest is doing respectable numbers and should come in on target at around 60k-70k, with some feeling it could trend higher as the week progresses. That should be good for a Top 15 chart berth.

Meanwhile, next Tuesday’s packing major heat, with Coldplay’s X&Y (Capitol), Black Eyed PeasMonkey Business (Interscope) and the White StripesGet Behind Me, Satan (V2) each hitting the streets. Pre-release buzz has Coldplay rubbing up against 500k in its first week, with the ’Peas doing 200k-250k and the ’Stripes notching as much as 200k.