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Four debuting acts—Republic’s Alex Clare and Of Monsters and Men, along with Dualtone’s Lumineers and Def Jam/IDJ’s Frank Ocean—have separated themselves from the pack.
FALL RELEASES BEGIN Q4 ROLLOUT
Taylor Swift’s Red Leads the Way, With One Direction, Mumford & Sons, P!nk Also Strong
Big Machine country-pop crossover queen Taylor Swift’s Red is poised for the best first week of the year when it drops on Oct. 22, with a rare million-selling bow in reach.

The deluge of initial preorders for One Direction’s Take Me Home, the sophomore album from the Syco/Columbia boy band is slated for Nov. 13, giving the release the look of a commercial giant, with most expecting a first week north of 500k. That will give it a good shot at being the year’s second biggest debut.

In the following grid of high-profile releases for the rest of 2012, beginning with the four albums that hit last Tuesday—RCA’s P!nk, Def Jam/IDJ’s Kanye West G.O.O.D. Music compilation, Island/IDJ’s The Killers and 604/Schoolboy/ Interscope’s Carly Rae Jepsen—we’ve eliminated the second or third singles that are just getting started from each. Christina Aguilera’s RCA album Lotus and One Direction’s Take Me Home, both slated for Nov. 13, aren’t included because their initial singles are just hitting radio.

Four debuting acts—Republic’s Alex Clare and Of Monsters and Men, along with Dualtone’s Lumineers and Def Jam/IDJ’s Frank Ocean—have separated themselves from the pack, and although all are primarily album artists, each has also yielded a strong-performing single.

The Lumineers are one of four noteworthy new and developing acts whose debut albums and singles are tracked below. Mumford & SonsBabel and its setup single “I Will Wait” are among the autumn album releases also listed, along with their singles and label-derived first-week sales projections. As the comparative performance chart indicates, these singles range from disappointing in the cases of Green Day (#3 Alt, #29 Hot AC) and No Doubt (#17 Alt, #18 Pop)—with second singles just serviced on both—to spectacular for Swift and Carly Rae Jepsen.

Other acts tracked include Syco/Epic’s Cher Lloyd, Warner Bros.Muse and YG/Schoolboy/Republic South Korean viral sensation PSY.

SELECTED NEW & DEVELOPING ALBUMS W/SINGLES

ARTIST

ALBUM/SINGLE

LABEL

LP FORECAST

CUME

SINGLE SALES

 AUDIENCE

ALEX CLARE

LATENESS OF THE HOUR

REPUBLIC

95k

 

TOO CLOSE

1.5m

447.9m

OF MONSTERS AND MEN 

MY HEAD IS AN ANIMAL

REPUBLIC

365k

 

LITTLE TALKS

870k

288.9m

LUMINEERS

THE LUMINEERS

DUALTONE

295k

 

HO HEY

750k

152.1m

FRANK OCEAN

CHANNEL ORANGE

DEF JAM/IDJ

310k

 

THINKIN BOUT YOU

380k

129.7m

SELECTED FALL ALBUMS W/SINGLES

ARTIST

ALBUM/SINGLE

LABEL

LP FORECAST

CUME

SINGLE SALES

 AUDIENCE

G.O.O.D. MUSIC

CRUEL SUMMER

GM/DEF JAM/IDJ

200k

 

MERCY

1.8m

1.07b

CARLY RAE JEPSEN

KISS

SCHOOLBOY/INTERSCOPE

75k

 

CALL ME MAYBE

5.7m

2.4b

GOOD TIME (W/OWL CITY)

1.4m

587.3m

KILLERS

BATTLE BORN

ISLAND/IDJ

125k

 

RUNAWAYS

160k

65.8m

PINK

THE TRUTH ABOUT LOVE RCA

175k

 

BLOW ME (ONE LAST KISS)

1.2m

892.5m

GREEN DAY

¡UNO!

REPRISE

175k

 

OH LOVE

95k

147.8m

MUMFORD & SONS

BABEL

GLASSNOTE

400k

 

I WILL WAIT

430k

62.2m

NO DOUBT

PUSH & SHOVE

INTERSCOPE

125k

 

SETTLE DOWN

280k

273.4m

CHER LLOYD

STICKS & STONES

SYCO/EPIC

65k

 

WANT U BACK

1.4m

539.2m

MUSE

2ND LAW

WARNER BROS.

150k

 

MADNESS

95k

43.1m

TAYLOR SWIFT

RED

BIG MACHINE

900k

 

WE ARE NEVER...

1.7m

529.8m

PSY

TBD

YG/SCHOOLBOY/REPUBLIC

TBD

 

GANGNAM STYLE

400k

33.1m

A HOLLY, JOLLY
HITS LIST
A December to remember (12/6a)
REVENUE CHART:
MALONE IS MONEY
Yet another post about Post (12/6a)
TAYLOR LIGHTS HER "CHRISTMAS TREE"
With lots of shiny tinsel (12/6a)
THE HAPPY WARRIOR OF THE RECORD BUSINESS
What a great guy (12/6a)
GRAMMY CHEW: WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE, ANYWAY?
Those who fail to learn from the past are destined to repeat it. (12/6a)
EGGNOG!
Ours is mostly bourbon.
MISTLETOE!
Delicious in salads.
CHESTNUTS!
Ours are roasting, but it could be these slim-fit jeans.
WEED!
An entire Christmas tree made of it. Is what we want for Christmas.
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