FACE THE NATION: Much chatter over the last few weeks has surrounded the rumored return of legendary label LaFace. L.A. Reid and Babyface’s Atlanta imprint, established in 1989 as a JV with Clive Davis’ Arista, yielded monster hits by the likes of TLC, Toni Braxton, USHER, P!nk and Outkast and was an absolute chart powerhouse throughout the ’90s and early 2000s. Now, we understand, the dynamic duo is reuniting and entertaining offers from multiple major-label suitors.

WHEELS (UP) AND DEALS: Which current label boss is—through a top attorney—testing the waters for a new gig? Meanwhile, a couple of other hot company rulers are attempting to renegotiate their current deals—is their timing spot-on?

L.A. Reid

babyface

three blind mice

tarek mansour

WHAT ARE THE ODDS? Where streaming stats are concerned, there’s a new fly in the ointment: betting sites like Kalshi and Polymarket, where the potential for insider trading is sky-high. (While both of these “prediction markets” are technically regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, consider how regulation functions generally in the Trump era.) Bettors are said to be manipulating stream counts by using server farms and bots, thus boosting titles and profiteering from long-odds bets.

If megastars like Drake, Taylor Swift or Justin Bieber, who are streaming massively, wanted to goose their numbers, the biz would be inclined to turn a blind eye because their stream counts are already so huge; the betting doesn’t have much impact on the cosmos. But when a new act is involved and appears to be implicated in stat-juking, it can affect said artist’s credibility as the competition cries foul.

Spotify would very much like to bust these server farms. For starters, it doesn’t want to pay for bot-generated streams. But, far more importantly, the streaming leader doesn’t want its chart manipulated. Its representatives say it will be more diligent and manually scrub the chart for “inorganic spikes,” and affirm that it is laser-focused on making sure royalties are not misdirected or misappropriated.

Kalshi issued this statement: “We’re in touch with Spotify and are actively investigating this matter.”

For the time being, it doesn’t seem that much can be done to stop insider trading on a betting platform—a winning bet on a Spotify chart outcome recently returned $150k after bettors found a way to add a few hundred thousand streams to a particular record.

The bottom line: Somebody’s always building a better mousetrap. And there’s now a greater financial incentive than ever to play chart games—an incentive that extends well outside the music biz.

SIENNA SPIRO

Madonna

Beyoncé

Future

SWIPE RIGHT TO BUY: The summer brings a big slate of major releases, and the July 4 weekend appears to have been the starting gun (or M80, if you prefer).

This weekend saw the arrival of Capitol thrush SIENNA SPIRO’s debut album. The British singer is among the buzziest of new arrivals and is widely regarded as a likely BNA Grammy nominee. Her single “Die on This Hill” has clocked half a billion global Spotify streams.

Another highly anticipated set arrived just before the fireworks: Madonna’s Confessions II, which looks set for a six-figure debut. The Warner superdiva’s sequel to the beloved 2005 album Confessions on a Dance Floor was the beneficiary of a unique promotion on the hook-up app Grindr. Anticipation has clearly been genuine, a testament to Madge’s ongoing pop-cultural relevance.

With no forewarning, Beyoncé lit her own firecracker on Independence Day by issuing the single “MORNING DEW (DONK),” igniting mondo speculation that she was readying the follow-up to 2024’s Grammy-winning album COWBOY CARTER.

It’s unusual to see significant releases around July 4, since Americans are largely streaming cuts like “Courtesy of the Red, White and Blue” or “Party in the U.S.A.” rather than typical pop songs. As a rule, streaming dips by as much as 25% when the air starts to smell of gunpowder.

A new release by Epic’s Future is usually an event, and there’s every reason to believe that the rapper’s 22-track platter The Real Me, due on July 10, will continue that tradition; at this point, it’s looking to do about 225k in its first frame. Future’s 2022 album. I Never Liked You, bowed with 222k and has racked up 3.8m in ATD.

Steve Lacy

Gracie Abrams

Charli xcx

Phoebe Bridgers

July 17 brings two big titles: Steve Lacy’s Oh yeah (RCA) and Gracie Abrams’ Daughter from Hell (Interscope). It’s genre-blurring guitar slinger Lacy’s first album since 2022’s Gemini Rights, which debuted with 25k and has hit 1.7m ATD. Pop heavyweight Abrams is expected to pull down 150k in Daughter’s opening week. She notched an 89k debut with 2024’s The Secret of Us, which has done 2.4m in ATD.

Atlantic’s Charli xcx arrives on July 24 with Music, Art, Film, an ambitious set that reflects her multimedia predilections. Her last proper album, 2024’s zeitgeist-rocking BRAT, did 77k in its first week and has subsequently hit 2.3m in ATD.

Phoebe Bridgers, who hit the big time as one-third of boygenius (712k ATD) and has become a giant in the indie world, could be poised for solo glory with her Lost Weekend (Dead Oceans), which will stagger into the marketplace on Aug. 14. Bridgers’ last solo album bowed with 11k but has since amassed 1.2m in activity.

On Aug. 28, Alamo’s Rod Wave will—barring any superstar surprises—deliver the most significant new release of late summer, the 24-track Don’t Look Down, which is expected to collect a cool 140k in its premiere week. Wave’s last set, 2024’s Last Lap, enjoyed a 127k debut and has lapped up 2.3m in ATD.

rod wave

sombr

Zara Larsson

Ed Sheeran

We don’t know for sure when Warner heartthrob sombr will deliver his next album. But we do know that his new single, “My Body Isn’t Ready,” is commanding serious streams and quickly vaulted onto Spotify’s U.S. Top 30. The artist-songwriter’s 2025 album, I Barely Know Her, is now at 1.3m in ATD.

FRESH INK: Word has it that two artists are leaving their longtime major-label homes and making deals with different majors. Zara Larsson, who’s been with Epic for more than a decade, is said to be moving to RCA. We’re also hearing that Ed Sheeran, who’s been a free agent since his deal with Elektra/Atlantic expired, may be inking with Interscope, which would reunite him with John Janick—who headed Fueled by Ramen, part of the Atlantic system, during the early chapters of Sheeran’s major-label career.

Preview image: Pavel Danilyuk