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THINGS THAT MAKE US GO HMMMM: WHAT WE’RE WATCHING FOR THIS FALL

After blazing a couple of blunts, Messrs. Beer and Glickman offered the following ruminations on topics the biz will be watching this fall and beyond. Having typed up the original manuscript (which was scrawled in crayon on the back of a takeout menu, per their custom), we offer it for your perusal.

Conspicuous “Consumption”

We’re just gonna say it: Consumption charts suck. When you combine albums, singles and streams using mysterious conversion formulas, you tend to create meaningless numbers. Right now, with album sales declining, you can get a slightly higher consumption number by adding in singles and streams. So they take you from 83k to 87k equivalent-something on a title—so what? Apart from jerking everyone off by creating an artificially higher “total,” it’s not very informative.

Let’s see a chart that separates sales and streams, so we can really see how things are changing. One thing that will become apparent is that, by and large, hits are hits, regardless of how they’re consumed. But where there are disparities—as we’ve seen with the huge streaming numbers achieved by certain hip hop titles—let’s look at them in isolation, so we can make apples-to-apples comparisons.

Speaking of which, as Apple gets its first influx of subscription payments, we will know a lot more about where the streaming market is headed. But clearly this is the future of the business, and it is already significant to say, “I have a top-streaming record.” As album sales continue to fall away, it will be increasingly important to look at streams on their own, without any other noise factored in.

We love streaming. We think that as consumers really begin to explore what’s possible in an all-you-can-eat, streaming subscription model, they’ll start to feel like kids in a candy store, just as we do. That makes us excited about the future. Now let’s give ourselves the tools to be ready for that future. And let’s take a proper look at how, and how fast, that future is evolving.

Radio Beliebers

Justin Bieber is back, unleashing a new single, “What Do You Mean,” in tandem with the VMAs. Coming off his smash collaboration with Diplo, Biebs has the kind of serious momentum that has made him front-of-mind again. It has instantly gone to #1 at iTunes. He's also earned enormous streaming numbers, second only to 1D in first- and second-day streams. iHeart is getting ready for a big play, and radio in general is optimistic about JB’s comeback album. Kudos to Steve BartelsDef Jam team and Scooter Braun’s squad, who are working together to give him another shot at the top. This is certainly one of the stories to watch this fall.

Alternative to What?

For decades, amid radical changes in style, Alternative radio regularly injected fresh artists into the mainstream. But the ratio of new music to recurrents has declined drastically over the past decade. With discovery coming from YouTube, streaming services and blogs, wonderers might wonder: Is the format giving up on the active, new music, peer group-leaders and just playing young-end callout fodder? Are they seeking the same irrelevancy that MTV has achieved? Will Alternative become an aftermarket for hits, or will one of the peer-group stars step up and make a stand for the format’s heritage in discovery? Brad, John, Kevin, Troy—who is it going to be?

The Weeknd vs. Taylor: A Grammy Grudge Match?

As we move into serious Grammy season—and await Grammy whisperer Paul Grein’s September predictions—it becomes more and more apparent to us that XO/Republic’s The Weeknd and Big Machine’s Taylor Swift will be in the headlines when the most-nominated lists come out. Whom will Monte Lipman root for when two of his darlings (one homegrown on his label and the other helping his promo staff make history at radio) are competing for the championship? Could he get a win-win in a tie for Album of the Year? And what if his own Drake gets nominated as well? Quality problems, Mr. Lipman. Quality problems.

The Weeknd vs. The Weeknd

In several Grammy categories, The Weeknd’s biggest competitor is likely to be himself. Which of his three giant hits that qualify for nominations—“Earned It,” “Can’t Feel My Face” and “The Hills”—will get most attention for Record of the Year and Song of the Year? Which songs will get nods in which genre categories, and where might two of his singles go head to head? Talk about a classy problem. We leave it to Mr. Grein to sort this out.

Just One More Item About The Weeknd. For Now.

The Canadian superstar has had the #1 and #2 singles at iTunes for the previous week, as his hotly anticipated album, Beauty Behind the Madness (also #1 in preorder) finally comes out. He’s destined for a big #1 retail bow, but this isn’t just about first-week sales, especially as aforementioned Grammy heat kicks in. What other singles are yet to be unleashed? What kind of legs might this album have?

Halsey: Lorde of All She Surveys?

The Astralwerks/Capitol breakout is also about to have a great first week for her album. But radio is still balking at her lead single, “New Americana,” due to pot-related lyrics. Halsey’s not fighting for fans—she’s already a major pop star with the social impact to match. The question is whether Pop radio will let her in. This will be the war to watch this fall, as the Top 40 format, which usually goes for inoffensive, uncontroversial fodder, is faced with a meaty, breakthrough, potentially polarizing song. One is reminded of Alanis Morissette, whose vivid imagery of oral sex in a theater gave programmers pause before “You Oughta Know” became an unstoppable force of nature. “Americana” just has to get so big that radio has no choice but to play it. Halsey’s off to an unbelievable start—where will she be at Christmas? Will she become a gigantic voice of a new generation, this year’s Lorde, or will she be stalled by risk-averse gatekeepers?

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