Wednesday, April 12, 2006
Toby Keith and Rascal Flatts Arm Wrestle for #1; Queen and Daniel Powter Await the Idol Affect
Is’s a-gonna be a Red State, Easter Weekend retail jamboree headin’ to the top notch on next week’s album chart, cowpokes. There’s no question that redneck superstar
Toby Keith will score the biggest debut, as his latest
Show Dog Nashville/Universal release gallops toward
300k-320k, but it's unclear whether that total will be enough for Toby to wrest #1 from
Lyric Street’s
Rascal Flatts. The pop-country trio is coming off the year’s biggest first week at 700k-plus, and if the album follows second-week form it’ll still be in the 300k neighborhood. Another big factor is the Easter weekend, which traditionally has been good for the racks, and that figures to be good for
both big-hat-wearin’ contenders. So look for this to be a horse race.
Next week’s second-highest bow should go to hip-hop icon LL Cool J, whose Def Jam/IDJ release should come in just shy of 100k. LL could get some competition from Maverick rookie Daniel Powter, who’s looking 60k-70k-ish right now, but tonight another contestant will get voted off American Idol, and tens of millions of viewers will hear that damned song once again...so the crooner’s tally could go up.
Capitol’s second box of Beatles U.S. albums should hit 30k, plus or minus, depending on how many nostalgic Boomers are ready to peel $45 to $50. The Fab Four could be another beneficiary of the Easter bump. Running neck and neck with the Beatles set in the early going is Cam'ron’s "presents" collection (Asylum/Atlantic).
The next grouping includes Vagrant rockers Saves the Day, trending toward 25k, and RCA Nashville’s Jeff Bates, who should wind up in the neighborhood of 25k-30k
The week’s big wild card is Queen’s greatest-hits disc on Hollywood. It doesn't look like anything right now, but American Idol should have a profound effect on sales today and tomorrow, after a full show of Queen songs Tuesday night and the revamped band making an appearance on tonight’s show. So it's anybody's guess where the LP will end up following the AI spike.
And now for the weekly perspective. Album sales for the week ending last Sunday were up around 3% compared to the previous week, and up about 15% over the comparable week of 2005, thanks to Rascal Flatts posting the biggest April debut of all time. That’ll bring the year-to-date deficit down to around 2%.
