JAY-Z AND OUTKAST
ARE NECK AND NECK

Based on early returns, Jay-Z's "The Dynasty" (Roc-A-Fella/Def Jam) looks like it will edge out Outkast's surprisingly strong challenger, "Stankonia" (LaFace/ Arista), for the #1 slot on this week's HITS chart. Both albums are expected to do in the 550k range in first-week sales, which easily surpasses retail expectations.

Like Al Gore, New Yorker Jay-Z is showing great strength in the Northeast, where he's #1 at both Trans World and The Wiz, while ATL natives Outkast draw support from the West and South, with solid wins at Best Buy and Wherehouse. Outkast is a narrow winner at both Target and Musicland, too, but experts feel Jay-Z's strong indie distrib base will give him the Election Day win.

And rock continues its roll, with U2's "All That You Can't Leave Behind" (Interscope) a solid #3, looking at a robust 400k in first-week sales, while Godsmack's "Awake" (Universal) also appears headed to a Top 5 debut with more than 275k units sold.

At radio, 98 Degrees' "My Everything" looks to be Most Added at Pop, ahead of Bon Jovi and Green Day, while Rage Against the Machine's "The Renegades of Punk" and SR-71's "Politically Correct" will fight it out for PoMo honors. Look for Shaggy's "It Wasn't Me" to break through at Top 40 this week after several weeks of exploding sales.

Meanwhile, "Ralph Nader Sings Green Day" edges into the Top 100 and is looking for sales in the swing states.