AOL-TW MERGER:
HOME BY CHRISTMAS?

Most industry watchers view the vote by AOL and Time Warner stockholders as a formality. Set for tomorrow (6/23), the separate votes are expected to tally up largely in favor of the pending $130 billion merger.

But things might not go so swimmingly on the regulation front.

According to Reuters, some analysts now believe that the deal may not close until winter rather than autumn as was initially expected. Those who thought the deal could still go through by fall agreed that regulatory scrutiny would be intense.

"I don't see why it should have an exhaustive (review) and be delayed," said Barry Hyman of Ehernkrantz King Nussbaum in the Reuters story. "However, given that the (government) is holding things up and looking more carefully at deals, I would look for it to close more in the winter or toward the end of the year."

As reported here earlier, at issue is AOL's dominance in instant messaging (hitsdailydouble, 6/12), as well as concerns about assurances that the combined company's distribution channels remain open to other content providers. The government is also looking into links among AOL, Time Warner and AT&T Corp., which has a stake in Time Warner Entertainment.

All this and increased scrutiny from the European Commission too (hitsdailydouble, 6/19). And with the Vivendi-Seagram deal now also raising European eyebrows, it all adds up to a big pile of calendar pages on the floor.