I.B. BAD PEERS AT THE BIG STORIES OF FALL IN HIS CRYSTAL BALL

DONE DEAL: In recent weeks, Monte Lipman’s Republic has taken a sizable lead in the year-to-date new-release marketshare competition, with 9.1% compared to 7.6% for the #2 label, Peter Edge’s RCA. And with a potent release schedule that includes what is shaping up as one of the fall’s biggest albums from Drake (whose previous LP sold 2m+) and the latest from Jack Johnson, as well as high-profile debuts from The Weeknd, the breaking Lorde and Ariana Grande that lead appears all but insurmountable—meaning Republic can already be declared 2013’s #1 label in new-release share.

There could, however, be a battle for second place between RCA, which has Justin Timberlake (2.2m), Kings of Leon and Miley Cyrus coming up; Rob Stringer’s Columbia (#3, 6.6%), with Beyoncé (1.4m), Foster the People (1m), One Direction (1.8m) and Celine Dion (1.1m); and Jimmy Iovine’s IGA (#4, 6.2%), whose schedule boasts Eminem (4.5m), Lady Gaga (2.3m) and Scotty McCreery (1.2m).

The 11/5 release of Eminem’s The Marshall Mathers LP 2 will be preceded by a Beats ad campaign, which kicked off during the VMAs, driving lead single “Berzerk” straight to the top of the iTunes chart. Since the NBA Finals, when the visibility of Iovine and Dr. Dre’s brand reached an all-time high, Beats has taken on an expanded dimension as a launch platform for records and artists, much as iTunes TV campaigns consistently did in the previous decade. Expect Iovine and Dre to continue making use of the powerful new platform they’ve created to help break emerging acts, as they did with Robin Thicke and Imagine Dragons, and expand the impact of event records like Eminem’s.

A world of intrigue surrounds the initial skirmish in the war between pop divas Katy Perry and Lady Gaga, which is likely to continue through the rest of the year, if not beyond. Things started heating up on Saturday, 8/10, when Perry’s “Roar,” the lead single from her 10/22 album Prism, was leaked online by Perez Hilton, three days before its scheduled release. IDJ exec Chris Anokute, who’d A&R’d Perry’s Teenage Dream (2.7m) while at Capitol, retweeted the link to the song. Anokute was subsequently fired and is supposedly considering filing a lawsuit against UMG for wrongful termination.

These events took place nearly simultaneously with the leak of Lady Gaga’s “Applause,” forcing Interscope to move up the release a week to 8/12—putting her in an unintended faceoff with Perry. “Roar,” which was rushed out at midnight on Saturday, two days ahead of schedule, exploded, breaking the 2013 record for first-week sales with 557k; at presstime, it’s already north of 1m. Perry’s single also erupted at radio, logging more than 25k all-format spins as of 8/27, according to Mediabase, as Team Thompson slammed the record through the system. Meanwhile, the Gaga single is approaching 500k in sales while generating 12.7k spins up to 8/27. Adding to the diva drama was some rumored turmoil within Gaga’s inner circle. But Gaga regained a bit of momentum during Sunday’s night’s VMAs by capturing the coveted opening slot, while Perry closed the show.

Between their performances, an upstart diva emerged in the twerking form of Miley Cyrus, who managed to upstage every other act, providing this year’s show with its signature outrageous moment. By Monday morning, Cyrus had two singles in the iTunes Top 5, while overall pre-orders on her 10/8 RCA album Bangerz had soared to 8.5k to Prism’s 5k at presstime (both went up for sale over the weekend).

It isn’t a shock that the 20-year-old former Disney starlet is pushing the envelope; what’s surprising is how well the strategy appears to be working, at least in the early going. Cyrus’ manager, Larry Rudolph, has extensive experience in this matter, having spent years conducting the career of the maturing Britney Spears.

Insiders say mega-managers Scooter Braun (Justin Bieber) and Troy Carter (Gaga) are going into business together. The partnership of these two power players after Braun secured the financing to begin rolling up management companies.

In a final note, the industry will be closely watching the rapidly emerging young artists Lorde, Passenger and Avicii, each of whom has a potentially gigantic single, as the year plays out. Lorde’s “Royals” (Lava/Republic) is breaking at all formats after starting at Alternative, Passenger's timeless sounding "Let Her Go" (Nettwerk/WB) is poised to cross to Pop from Hot AC, and Avicii’s “Wake Me Up” (PMRD/Island/IDJ) is already generating Top 5 sales. Will the latter smash light a fire under Avicii’s debut album, hitting 9/17? Could the 23-year-old Swedish DJ become the first EDM act to take an album platinum in the U.S.?

Names in the rumor mill: Tom Corson, John Janick, Joel Klaiman, Michelle Jubelirer, Allen Grubman, Scott Rodger, Richard Griffiths and Charlie Walk.