I.B. BAD REVEALS THE TOP FIVE FINALISTS OF THE 2013 SEASON

While Monte Lipman’s Republic has a virtual lock on 2013 new-release marketshare dominance with a commanding 9.3% YTD, compared to 7.4% for its closest rival, RCA, the competition for overall-plus-TEA supremacy among the Top Five labels could go down to the wire. In this sector, Jimmy Iovine’s IGA remains on top with 7.4%, compared to 7.2% for Republic, 7.0% for Edge and Corson’s RCA and 6.8% for Rob Stringer’s Columbia.

The biggest surprise is CMG, which, in addition to Katy Perry and Arcade Fire, has increased its share by .6 of a percentage point to 6.9% by virtue of the inclusion of Christian bookstore sales to the company’s share, as Steve Barnett continues in his quest to recreate EMI pre-merger in all of its various parts, including Caroline, I.R.S., Harvest and Virgin, under the rapidly expanding CMG umbrella.

The only remaining 2013 release with the potential to move the needle in a disappointingly light late-2013 releases schedule are the third album from Columbia’s One Direction, hitting on Monday of Thanksgiving week (11/25), with estimates currently in the 500k range, and RCA’s Britney Spears, though her very light promo schedule, with little or no TV around the release, could put the album on the low end of the 150-200k forecast.

Although IGA is in the midst of a strong run behind hit albums and singles from Eminem, Imagine Dragons and OneRepublic, Lady Gaga’s 260k album debut would appear to bespeak some erosion of her mainstream core. So would the performance of lead single "Applause," with sales of 1.8m—a hit and a #1 callout record, but not a giant smash like recent records from Perry (3.7m), Lorde (3.5m) and Miley Cyrus (2.8m). Some believe Gaga’s recent split with Troy Carter, her bright and well-liked manager, is symptomatic of a larger problem. How will these issues impact ticket sales on her upcoming tour? Settlement negotiations are ongoing between the two parties, but Carter’s deal with Scooter Braun doesn’t appear to be in jeopardy despite the estrangement with Gaga.

Mike Dungan’s UMG Nashville is #6 in new-release share YTD with 5.6%, an astonishing feat for a Music City operation, even more so considering that Dungan doesn’t get Republic Nashville or Big Machine’s shares. The company is topping off 2013 with the Robertsons’ Duck the Halls, a timely spinoff of the Duck Dynasty phenomenon, which is shaping up as the year’s best-selling holiday album.

L.A. Reid’s Epic is on the verge of a major breakthrough in A Great Big World’s left-field smash "Say Something." The song zoomed to the top of the sales charts with 189k immediately after Christina Aguilera performed it with the duo two weeks ago on The Voice. The track is now exploding at Hot AC and Top 40, as Todd Glassman and the Epic promo team demonstrate what a major label can deliver when given a bona fide potential smash—and "Say Something" has all the earmarks of a mega-hit.

Michael Rapino, who led Live Nation to a record-breaking quarter, topped off this feat by closing a $30m deal with Paul McGuinness’ Principle Management. This coup was made possible when McGuinness decided to step back, while Guy Oseary supposedly had been pitching Bono on the concept that he could substantially increase U2’s digital footprint. Oseary is reportedly now on salary handling the day-to-day for the band, while Live Nation is believed to be getting a 15%-of-net management commission. Insiders say U2 was already paying LN 15% of gross ticket sales; the additional 15% of net was assumed to be relatively low on the last tour as a result of the massive overhead, with 75 trucks transporting two identical productions that leapfrogged from one stadium to the next.

MSG Azoff Entertainment’s renovated Forum is already looking like a serious competitor to AEG’s long-dominant Staples Center, in part by offering cheaper rental fees, leading some to speculate as to whether AEG will drop its rates for Staples. Most believe that Live Nation, which has already scheduled several early 2014 shows at the Forum, will be inclined to shun its chief rival’s multi-use downtown arena in favor of MSG’s all-music venue in Inglewood.

Several majors have quietly imposed a moratorium on artist signings as they reevaluate the traditional A&R formula of drilling 20 oil wells in hopes of getting one gusher, when so many of today’s hits are coming from niche companies like Glassnote, Cash Money, Lava, Macklemore, Nettwerk, Merge and SYCO.

Names in the rumor mill: Beats, Flom, Larry Rudolph, Kenny Meisalas and Arthur Fogel.